What Is Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation Concerning the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started investing in bitcoins and I’ve heard a great deal of discusses inflation and deflation but not lots of people actually know and consider what inflation and deflation are. But let’s focus on inflation.

We always needed a method to trade value and probably the most practical way to do it is to link it with money. In past times it worked quite well as the money that has been issued was linked to gold. So every central bank needed enough gold to pay back all of the money it issued. However, before century this changed and gold is not what’s giving value to money but promises. As possible guess it’s very an easy task to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks aren’t renouncing to do so. Bitcoin Evolution is why they’re printing money, so put simply they are “creating wealth” out of thin air without really having it. This technique not merely exposes us to risks of economic collapse nonetheless it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money is worth less, whoever is selling something must raise the price of goods to reflect their real value, this is called inflation. But what’s behind the amount of money printing? Why are central banks doing this? Well the answer they might give you is that by de-valuing their currency they’re helping the exports.

In fairness, inside our global economy this is true. However, that’s not the only reason. By issuing fresh money we are able to afford to pay back the debts we had, basically we make new debts to pay the old ones. But that’s not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we have been de-facto de-valuing our debts. That’s why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s better to grow because debts are cheap. But which are the consequences of most this? It’s hard to store wealth. If you keep the money (you worked hard to get) in your money you are actually losing wealth because your money is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank has an inflation target at around 2% we can well say that keeping money costs all of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, based on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is exactly the opposite of inflation and it is the biggest nightmare for the central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we have deflation when overall the costs of goods fall. This might be caused by an increase of value of money. For starters, it could hurt spending as consumers will be incentivised to save lots of money because their value increase overtime. However merchants will be under constant pressure. They will need to sell their goods quick otherwise they’ll lose money because the price they will charge for his or her services will drop as time passes. But if there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care probably the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt will become a real burden since it will only get bigger as time passes. Because our economies are based on debt you can imagine exactly what will be the consequences of deflation.

So to summarize, inflation is growth friendly but is founded on debt. Which means future generations can pay our debts. Deflation on the other hand makes growth harder but it implies that future generations won’t have much debt to cover (in such context it could be possible to cover slow growth).

OK so how all of this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are made to be an alternative for money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They’re limited in number and we’ll never have a lot more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they’re designed to be deflationary. We now have all seen what the results of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it would still be easy for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from a debt-based economy to a share-based economy. In fact, because contracting debts in bitcoins would be very costly business can still have the capital they need by issuing shares of these company. This could be an interesting alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, simply for clarity, I must say that area of the costs of borrowing capital will be reduced under bitcoins as the fees would be extremely low and there will not be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This might buffer a number of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to cover back the huge debts that people inherited from the past generations.

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